This week's main events will be data on the labor market (Nonfarm Payrolls) in the United States and interest rate meetings of the Central Banks of England and Australia. Analysts forecast that both the Bank of England (BoE) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will raise interest rates by 0.5%. Also, this week there will be a lot of macroeconomic statistics on manufacturing PMIs and services PMI data, which will indicate global economic trends in key economies for the first month of the third quarter. It should also be noted that it is the reporting season now – companies are showing their results for the previous quarter.
Monday, August 01
On Monday, traders will mainly focus on the Manufacturing PMI data from different countries. It is expected that the PMI in European countries will drop below the 50 mark, which will signify a recession. It's a bank holiday in Switzerland and Canada.
Main events of the day:
- - Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
- - China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
- - German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- - Spanish Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:15 (GMT+3);
- - Italian Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:45 (GMT+3);
- - French Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:50 (GMT+3);
- - German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
- - Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- - UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- - US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
Tuesday, August 02
The main event of Tuesday will be the decision of the Central Bank of Australia on the interest rate. Australia's Central Bank is expected to raise the interest rate by 0.50%. Volatility in currency pairs with the Australian dollar will increase. Traders should also pay attention to the US JOLTs Job Openings. The decline in unemployment and high inflation are prerequisites for further tightening monetary policy by the Fed.
Main events of the day:
- – JAustralia RBA Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
- – Australia RBA Rate Statement (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
- – Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
- – US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
Wednesday, August 03
Wednesday will bring various statistics for many countries. Switzerland will update inflation data, where analysts expect a decline in consumer prices. The Swiss National Bank is holding rates at negative levels, but the latest action by the Bank was the increase rates from -0.75 to -0.25. Higher inflation will make the SNB more hawkish, lower inflation more dovish. Also, on Wednesday, a number of PMIs in the service sector will be released. The US Crude Oil Reserves data, which significantly impacts oil prices, should also be in focus.
Main events of the day:
- – US FOMC Member Bullard Speaks (m/m) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
- – New Zealand Unemployment Rate at 01:45 (GMT+3);
- – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
- – Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- – China Caixin Services PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
- – Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
- – German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).
Thursday, August 04
On Thursday, traders will mainly focus on the Interest Rate Decisions from the Bank of England. According to preliminary data, the BOE is expected to hike rates by another 0.50% to curb inflation, which is at its highest in thirty years. Investors should also keep a close eye on the speech of Fed officials, who often give hints about the Fed's future actions.
Main events of the day:
- – UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- – UK BoE Inflation Report (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK BoE Monetary Policy Statement (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 14:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Mester Speaks (m/m) at 19:00 (GMT+3).
Friday, August 05
The most important Friday release is Nonfarm Payrolls. This data can trigger increased volatility in the market, and this indicator is also taken into account by the Fed to adjust monetary policy. Indications of continued strength in the labor market could add to bets on how aggressive the Fed may be in tightening monetary policy at the September meeting. Traders should also keep a close eye on the Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement.
Main events of the day:
- – Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- – German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
by , 2022.08.01
We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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