The Probability of an Increase in the Fed's Rate Exceeded 90%

On Friday, October 6, there was a high trading activity and volatility. The US published mixed statistics on the labor market. In September, the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector of the country decreased by 33,000. This is due to the aftermath of hurricanes Harvey and Irma. At the same time, an increase in the average hourly wage was 0.5%. Market expectations were at 0.3%. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% (the minimum of 16 years). After the publication of the report, the majors showed a variety of trends.

This week the minutes of the last FOMC meeting will be published on Wednesday, October 11. This report may indicate the time of the next Fed's interest rate increase. It should be recalled that previously a large part of the FOMC representatives supported another increase in the interest rate this year. At the moment, the probability of tightening the Fed's monetary policy in December 2017 increased to 91.7%.

In the Asian trading session, the "black gold" prices recovered part of the losses after a sharp decline during the Friday trading session. Saudi Arabia intends to continue to limit the extraction of raw materials to stabilize supply and demand. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are being traded near $49.5 per barrel.

Market Indicators

The main US stock indexes are near historical highs. On Friday, #SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) closed at $254.37 (-0.11%).

At the moment, the 10-year US government bonds yield is at the level of 2.36-2.37%.

Today, the news background is rather calm. The publication of important economic reports is not planned. The financial markets of Canada and Japan are closed due to the holiday.

by JMarkets, 2017.10.09

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.